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Senegal faces key technology selections in its search for the optimum gas-to-power strategy

Senegal’s domestic gasoline reserves will be primarily used to provide electrical energy. Authorities count on that home fuel infrastructure initiatives will come online between 2025 and 2026, provided there isn’t a delay. The monetization of those vital vitality assets is at the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global expertise group Wärtsilä conducted in-depth research that analyse the financial influence of the assorted gas-to-power strategies available to Senegal. Two very totally different applied sciences are competing to fulfill the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gasoline generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very important system value differences between the 2 primary gas-to-power technologies the country is presently contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, fuel engines are actually significantly better suited than mixed cycle gas turbines to harness power from Senegal’s new gas resources cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total value variations between the two technologies could reach as a lot as 480 million USD until 2035 relying on eventualities.
Two competing and really completely different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art vitality combine fashions developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised power scenarios to establish the cost optimum way to ship new generation capability for a selected country, shows that ICE and CCGT technologies present significant value variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program working to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally proven and reliable, they are very completely different in terms of the profiles in which they will operate. CCGT is a technology that has been developed for the interconnected European electricity markets, the place it may possibly function at 90% load factor at all times. On the other hand, flexible ICE technology can function efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to any other era applied sciences that may make up the country’s power mix.
In particular our research reveals that when working in an electrical energy community of limited dimension similar to Senegal’s 1GW national grid, counting on CCGTs to considerably broaden the community capability can be extremely pricey in all potential scenarios.
Cost differences between the technologies are explained by a quantity of components. First of all, sizzling climates negatively impression the output of gas generators more than it does that of fuel engines.
Secondly, thanks to Senegal’s anticipated entry to cheap domestic fuel, the working prices turn out to be much less impactful than the investment costs. In different phrases, as a result of low gasoline prices lower working prices, it’s financially sound for the country to depend on ICE energy plants, that are less expensive to build.
Technology modularity also performs a key function. Senegal is predicted to require an extra 60-80 MW of era capacity each year to be able to meet the increasing demand. This is much decrease than the capacity of typical CCGTs vegetation which averages 300-400 MW that should be in-built one go, leading to unnecessary expenditure. Engine energy vegetation, then again, are modular, which implies they are often constructed precisely as and when the nation needs them, and further extended when required.
เครื่องมือใช้วัดความดัน at play are important. The mannequin reveals that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT vegetation on the expense of ICE-gas, it’s going to lead to as a lot as 240 million dollars of extra value for the system by 2035. The price difference between the applied sciences can even increase to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal additionally chooses to build new renewable power capability inside the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The improvement of fuel infrastructure is a posh and lengthy endeavour. Program delays aren’t uncommon, inflicting fuel provide disruptions that may have an enormous financial influence on the operation of CCGT vegetation.
Nigeria is aware of something about that. Only last 12 months, significant fuel supply points have caused shutdowns at some of the country’s largest gas turbine energy crops. Because Gas generators operate on a steady combustion course of, they require a continuing supply of fuel and a secure dispatched load to generate constant power output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns happen, putting a great pressure on the general system. ICE-Gas plants then again, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their versatile working profile, they have been capable of maintain a much larger stage of availability
The examine took a deep dive to analyse the financial influence of 2 years delay in the fuel infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to invest into fuel engines, the worth of gas delay would be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would lead to a staggering 770 million dollars in additional value.
Whichever way you take a look at it, new ICE-Gas generation capacity will minimize the entire value of electricity in Senegal in all attainable situations. If Senegal is to fulfill electrical energy demand progress in a cost-optimal means, a minimum of 300 MW of latest ICE-Gas capability shall be required by 2026.
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